Workshop Programme
Proceedings: all participants have been given the link to the page from which they can download all presentations. In the near future the proceedings will also be available to all EWEA members via the EWEA Members’ Area.
Session 1: Users’ perspective and experience
Session chair: Lars Landberg, Director, Strategic Research & Innovation, Renewables, DNV GL
The session addressed end-user requirements at different time-frames and for different applications.
- What are the particular needs of TSOs, DSOs, utilities, energy traders, wind farm operators, aggregators, etc.?
- Seen from an end-user perspective what does the ideal system look like? What would be the one thing that would improve current systems?
- Value and perceived value of forecasts, eg what would the value of a 1% reduction in uncertainty be?
- Standardisation: the need for standardised products, tools, data, evaluation protocols, etc. in order to supports communities sharing knowledge.
- Reviews of requirements and gaps related to forecasting in grid codes
Speakers:
| Beyond MAE – the value of being right at the right time |
Jon Collins Global Head of Practice Forecasting DNV GL, United Kingdom |
| Determining the Value of More Accurate Wind Power Forecasting in Global Electricity Markets |
Pascal Storck Global Manager of Energy Services Vaisala Energy, USA |
| Benchmark of forecasting models: reviewing and improving the state of the art | Daniel Cabezon Head of Meteorological Models and Special Tasks, Energy Assessment, EDP Renovaveis, Spain |
| What’s next for wind energy forecasting systems? – Current and future requirements seen from a utility’s point of view | Tilman Koblitz Optimization Continental Manager, Forecasting & Short-Term Optimization Continental Business Area markets Vattenfall |
| Prediction of 40 GW of wind power in the German power system – positive effects of the market option and increasing situational awareness in grid operation |
Matthias Lange Leading associate/Co-founder Energy & Meteo Systems, Germany |
Session 2: Numerical weather prediction models
Session chair: Thomas Haiden, Team Leader, Verification and Observation Monitoring, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
The session addressed:
- NWP models: state-of-the-art in wind forecasting including future challenges and possible ways forward;
- Value of limited area models and other downscaling methods for improving wind predictions;
- Representation of uncertainty of near surface wind in NWP models.
Speakers:
| Progress in wind forecasting in the ECMWF model |
Thomas Haiden Team Leader, Verification and Observation Monitoring European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts |
| Improved weather forecasts for wind energy applications: Lessons learned and perspectives based on the ongoing German research project EWeLiNE | Kristina Lundgren Research Coordinator/Scientist Research and Development Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany |
| US experience (WFIP II – Wind Forecasting Improvement Project) |
James Wilczak Team Lead for Wind Energy NOAA Federal, United States |
| Forecasting wind (and radiation) for energy production and balancing of the network | Claus Petersen Researcher DMI-Danish Met Institute, Denmark |
Session 3: Wind Power Forecasting models and operational systems
Session chair: George Kariniotakis, Professor, Centre for Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE), MINES ParisTech, France
This session addressed:
This session presented advances in the development of models for short-term wind power forecasting. Focus was given on the prediction of extreme conditions and namely icing and on how these conditions affect the performance of the forecasting models. The session also presented advances on spatio-temporal forecasting where off-site measurements are used to improve very short-term predictions. Results from real-world test cases were presented. Several works on new modelling approaches were also presented in the related poster session.
Speakers:
| Large-scale Very-short-term Spatio-temporal Forecasting by Spare Vector Autoregression |
Jethro Dowell PhD Student, Electronic and Electrical Engineering University of Strathclyde United Kingdom |
| Big data techniques applied to very short -term wind power forecasting |
Ricardo Bessa Senior Researcher & Area Manager INESC Tech Portugal |
| Validation of New Model for Short-term Forecasting of Turbine Icing | Beatrice Brailey R&D Specialist Forecasting DNV GL |
| Forecasting of icing for wind power applications | Øyvind Byrkjedal R&D Manager Kjeller Vindteknikk |
Session 4: Special applications
Session chair: Gregor Giebel, Seniort Scientist, DTU Wind Energy, Denmark
This session addressed:
- Dedicated forecasting models for the time frames (very-short term, short, medium and longer term) of the various applications;
- Advances in various forecast products needed in the applications (probabilistic forecasts, scenarios, ramps, extremes event forecasting, spatio-temporal forecasting…);
- Quantification of the level of uncertainty in each part of the modelling chain (NWPs, downscaling, power curve modelling…)
- Simulation of forecasts errors for long-term studies in a planning perspective.
- Joint forecasting of wind power with other processes (i.e. with demand or PV generation at feeder level…).
Speakers:
| Integrated weather risk assessment for operations & maintenance strategy optimization |
Hajo Koopstra Student TU Delft, Netherlands |
| Wind resource seasonal forecast outcomes from SPECS project |
Gil Lizcano R&D Director Vortex |
| Evaluation of the level of prediction errors of PV and wind in a future with a large amount of renewable | Robin Girard Associate Professor, Energy and Processes MINES ParisTech, France |
| Weather Information Decision Support Tool Tailored to the Needs of Renewable Energy Industry | Isabel Metzinger Research Scientist Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany |
Session 5: Grid Integration
Session chair: Hannele Holttinen, Principal Scientist, Technical Research Centre of Finland, VTT, Finland
Forecasting will be needed in power system operation. This session presented forecasting use from a grid integration point of view: managing the power flows (congestion management) in both distribution and transmission system as well as managing the balancing task of system operators.
Speakers:
| Dynamic Line Rating Probabilistic Forecasting and Evaluation |
Romain Dupin PhD Student MINES ParisTech, France |
| Hotspot analysis for Dynamic Line Rating |
Dirk Malda R&D Energy metereology manager Meteogroup |
| Wind power and management of the transmission system in France |
Emmanuel Neau R&D Engineer RTE-France |
| Relevance of forecasting on onshore wind units participating in R2 delivery. The perspective of a TSO |
Jan Voet Cross-Border & Long term balancing market development manager ELIA, Belgium |
Session 6: Crowdsourcing the future
This interactive session addressed participants’ inputs on future issues related to wind power forecasting.
Session chair : Lars Landberg, Director, Strategic Research & Innovation, Renewables, DNV GL
During the 2 days of the workshop, participants were asked to submit their ideas for what the most important issues in wind power forecasting will be.Participants proposed 47 ideas which Lars Landberg grouped under 16 categories and presented these in the final session. Participants were asked to vote for the two that they thought most important.
It is hoped that this will inspire researchers and practitioners to steer their work in the directions identified. This valuable input will also be the starting point for EWEA’s third workshop on Wind Power Forecasting in 2017.
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