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BB200612, News in Brief

The IEA World Energy Outlook 2006

15.01.2007

In its 2006 Energy Outlook, presented on 7 November, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that the world is on an unsustainable energy track with under-investments, risks of supply disruptions and increasing greenhouse-gas emissions.

The objective of the new IEA forecast is to outline a new alternative energy future which would be "clean, clever and competitive". In a business-as-usual scenario , global primary energy demand will increase by 53% between now and 2030. Most of the increase will come from developing countries ( China and India). World oil demand will grow from 84 million barrels per day to 116 million barrels in 2030. As a result, global greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 55% over today's level.

The IEA recommends an Alternative Policy Scenario where governments would implement the new energy security and the CO2 emissions policies they are already considering. In this new scenario, world primary energy demand will be 10% less than in the first scenario (still 43% growth) and greenhouse gas emissions would still increase but "only" by 39%.

The report also presents a Beyond Alternative Policy Scenario where CO2 emissions would be kept at today's levels. To achieve that, a set of technological breakthroughs (carbon capture and storage mainly), strong demand-side policies (energy efficiency measures) and fuel-switching to nuclear and renewables would be needed, according to the Paris-based agency.

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