A new report has found that, in the long term, we can limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While this may make it sound like we are on the right path to preventing dangerous climate change – scientists say the rise should be kept to below 2°C – the emphasis on the ‘long term’ slightly distorts the picture since long term refers to the period after the year 2100.

More importantly we should note that the report, published by the Met Office Hadley Centre, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, says while we can achieve a 1.5°C rise, this is highly likely to involve “temporarily overshooting the temperature goal for up to 100 years”.

Rémi Gruet, Regulatory Affairs Advisor for EWEA, explains that such an overshoot could trigger the melting of permafrost soils: “Thawing soils would release methane – a gas more than 20 times more harmful to the climate than CO2,” Gruet says.

What we need now are early and strong emission reductions, he says; an opinion backed up by the report. To avoid the temperature overshoot, emissions reductions must begin now with the technologies we have available and are proven to work.

Europe’s renewable energy landscape, already expanding steadily, is readying itself for further growth. At the end of June this year all 27 member states were set to hand-in their National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) containing the steps they will take to reach their ambitious renewable energy targets by 2020.  While these plans are still being analysed, it is clear that the NREAPs are a good thing for the renewables sector and protecting our increasingly fragile climate.

Speaking at a Friends of Europe debate, Adam Brown, Senior Energy Analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA) said: “The IEA’s view is that a huge expansion in renewables is essential to get anywhere near the energy mix which will allow the climate to be managed in a sensible way.”

But it’s not just the climate that will benefit from the renewable expansion that the NREAPs will encourage: Europe can work for its own competitive interests. Philip Lowe, European Commission Director General for Energy, told Europe to “think about developing renewables not just in terms of climate change but also as just plain and simple self-interest in competitive global markets.”

This fact is evident in the wind power sector where, if Europe does not invest in keeping its position as world market leader now, countries like China could step in and overtake Europe’s longstanding lead.

If we are to achieve 100% renewables by 2050, as I argued in my previous blog post that we can and we should, there are two major issues that we have to recognise and start acting. Firstly, no more fossil fuel burning plants should be built after 2020 given the long life of such power stations. Secondly, we must use the next ten years to completely overhaul the way electricity is produced, transmitted and consumed in Europe.

The fact is that Europe’s current electricity supply structure bears the characteristics of the time in which it was developed, a time when fossil fuels and then nuclear were everything. It is constructed within national boundaries, the markets supporting it are underdeveloped and it is now ageing. Given the international nature of the energy challenges that the EU is facing, it is disappointing that we still do not have an internal market for electricity. We need urgently to establish the free movement of energy in Europe.

“We must use the next ten years to completely overhaul the way electricity is produced, transmitted and consumed in Europe.”

Climate change, depleting indigenous energy resources, increasing fuel costs and the threat of supply disruptions are washing up on our shores. Over the next 12 years, 360 GW of new electricity capacity – 50% of current EU capacity – needs to be built to replace ageing power plants and meet the expected increase in demand.

Europe must use this opportunity to construct a new, modern power system capable of meeting the energy and climate challenges of the 21st century, while enhancing Europe’s competitiveness. The power system must be supported by modern infrastructure technology, research and development and well functioning markets for electricity and transmission in which investors, rather than consumers, are exposed to carbon and fuel price risk.

Next year is critical for the EU to prove it is up to the challenge. In 2011, the European Commission will set out its proposals for the 2014-2020 budget which must reflect these new priorities. The budget must include investment in upgraded, extended and interconnected grids, and more R&D in wind technology. During the same year, ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, will set out what will be built in terms of grids until 2022. We are looking forward to the proof that the EU is truly committed to tackling climate change by bringing large amounts of renewable energy online.

European governments, the European Commission and the European Parliament have begun discussions on how the European energy system should look like in 2050. It is clear that political actions are needed this decade to prepare for such a dramatic overhaul of our energy supply structure.

The EU and the G8 have agreed to cut emissions by 80% in 2050, with the EU saying it will deepen cuts to 95% if other countries sign up to similar action. These commitments mean that the power sector will need to be 100% carbon free by 2050, since transport and agriculture will need the residual 20% emissions.

Power plants have a long lifetime and, if we are to keep to the 2050 limit, this means that no carbon emitting power plant can be constructed in the European Union after 2020.

The first question to any responsible politician – European or from any other industrialised country – talking about 80% greenhouse gas emissions reductions by 2050 must be: What measures do you propose to ensure that no carbon emitting power plant is constructed after 2020?

Many stakeholders will – and are – pushing for a combination of renewable energy, nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) to achieve zero-carbon power by 2050. They will argue that we need all technologies to decarbonise our power sector. It is not correct that we need them all to achieve a carbon free power sector in 2050. Renewable energy can do it alone with a massive contribution from onshore and offshore wind energy.

“Renewable energy can do it alone with a massive contribution from wind energy.”

In 2000, 21% of new power capacity installed in the EU was from renewable energy technologies (19% was wind energy). In 2009, the share had increased to 62% (39% wind). In the past ten years, the EU increased renewable energy’s share of new power capacity by 40%-points to 61%. There are no fundamental technical barriers to fill the remaining 39% gap and source all our new power capacity from renewables by 2020.

The wind energy sector should make a loud and clear statement in the current energy debate about 2050 that we do not need 100% zero-carbon (meaning a combination of renewables, nuclear energy and coal CCS) by 2050. We need 100% renewable energy by 2020.