Conference programme 

Raya Peterson SgurrEnergy, Germany
Co-authors:
Raya Peterson (1) ^{F P}
(1) SgurrEnergy, Hamburg, Germany
Poster Award Winner

Quantitative risk assessment and contingency sizing

Introduction

Understanding the risks associated with multi-million Euro projects is crucial for the successful development of renewable energy projects. Several different standards and methodologies are currently used within the industry.
Based on our actual hands on experience in several offshore wind energy projects around the world we developed a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) methodology using Monte Carlo simulation techniques to quantify the combined effects of all risks and uncertainties.


Approach

Quantitative Risk Assessment using Monte Carlo simulation techniques can be used to quantify the combined effects of all risks and uncertainties, both negative and positive, on the different project objectives. As such, this approach can for example be used to calculate the risks of cost or schedule overruns at different confidence levels. Depending on the desired certainty different contingency levels can thus be added to the project budget or milestone dates.

Main body of abstract

SgurrEnergy has significant experience in providing contingency sizing for offshore wind farms for both lenders and investors from our various technical advisory assignments. Furthermore we are able to continually improve the integrity and robustness of our approaches from the experience gathered during our construction monitoring and operational monitoring of offshore wind farms.
Today we are finding that QRA is increasingly being used to estimate contingency requirements for offshore wind farms, compared to rule of thumb figures applied only years ago. However, it is critical to understand that the integrity and success of using this technique depends heavily on the experience of the user, the integrity of the underlying risk register and assumptions made during the simulation. The approach can be easily subject to bias, compound underestimation of the project risk profile and thereby provide a false sense of security.


Conclusion

Using the quantitative risk assessment approach increases the accuracy of the risk analyses. Following that he contingency can be estimated with more precision as well. Offshore wind projects with low risk profiles can benefit from this approach as the increased accuracy of the contingency sizing has the potential to bring overall costs down. The additional effort to set up this methodology at the beginning of the project pays back by a more realistic approach regarding the overall costs


Learning objectives
This presentation will highlight benefits of using QRA process and present examples of how this is used to support contingency sizing.
The audience will learn how to avoid pitfalls and how common biases can be addressed.
At the end the importance of a detailed risk assessment should be clear and the delegates will be able to make improved decisions to analyse and mange risks in their projects