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	<title>Comments on: Why Germany’s energy transition is no “lunatic gamble”</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.ewea.org/blog/2012/08/why-germanys-energy-transition-is-no-lunatic-gamble/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.ewea.org/blog/2012/08/why-germanys-energy-transition-is-no-lunatic-gamble/</link>
	<description>Breath of fresh air</description>
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		<title>By: Joris van Dorp</title>
		<link>http://www.ewea.org/blog/2012/08/why-germanys-energy-transition-is-no-lunatic-gamble/#comment-15311</link>
		<dc:creator>Joris van Dorp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Sep 2012 08:59:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.ewea.org/blog/?p=3895#comment-15311</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;When wind turbines and solar plants are geographically widespread, to the extent that Germany’s transition entails, their output becomes far more constant and even easier for the grid to accommodate.&quot;

This is simply not true, as numerous studies have already clearly shown. Even when looking at the wider northern european area - not just Germany - there are multiple times (lasting hours to days)each year where winds are low throughout the region. Please see:

http://www.smartpowergeneration.com/spg/files/library/Poyry%20The%20challenges%20of%20intermittency%20in%20North%20West%20European%20power%20markets%20March2011.pdf


&quot;Furthermore the cost of generating electricity from wind has declined significantly over the past few years and will continue to decline further with improved efficiency and other expected technological advances.&quot;

This is simply false. The cost of wind turbines has been increasing for years.

http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-WIND_POWER.pdf

&quot;Wind power is in fact more predictable than the ever-changing electricity supply and demand patterns that utility system operators deal with every day&quot;

Compeltely false. Utility system operators can predict the supply and demand pattern very well in advance. Even weeks or months in advance, because these patterns vary very little. In contrast to Wind power. Even predicting wind power supply 24 hours in advance is very difficult, let alone weeks or months in advance.

&quot;... not to mention the dramatic effects of an unexpected shut-down of a large power plant.&quot;

Actually, the effects of such a shut-down are not dramatic at all. Large power plants have hardly any unexpected shutdowns, which means that one back-up plant can cover such am unexpected shortfall for *many* plants at the same time. Not so for wind power. Throughout the year there will *always* be many hours when almost no wind power is available. This means that backup plants will be needed for almost *all* installed wind power, *all* the time, 24/7/365. It is a *completely* different situation.

These are all very simple issues. It is hard to understand why EWEA refuses to address them. It is even harder to understand why EWEA seems to be actively pretending these issues are not there. It will only lead to dissappointment and blow-back. In whose interest is that?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;When wind turbines and solar plants are geographically widespread, to the extent that Germany’s transition entails, their output becomes far more constant and even easier for the grid to accommodate.&#8221;</p>
<p>This is simply not true, as numerous studies have already clearly shown. Even when looking at the wider northern european area &#8211; not just Germany &#8211; there are multiple times (lasting hours to days)each year where winds are low throughout the region. Please see:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.smartpowergeneration.com/spg/files/library/Poyry%20The%20challenges%20of%20intermittency%20in%20North%20West%20European%20power%20markets%20March2011.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.smartpowergeneration.com/spg/files/library/Poyry%20The%20challenges%20of%20intermittency%20in%20North%20West%20European%20power%20markets%20March2011.pdf</a></p>
<p>&#8220;Furthermore the cost of generating electricity from wind has declined significantly over the past few years and will continue to decline further with improved efficiency and other expected technological advances.&#8221;</p>
<p>This is simply false. The cost of wind turbines has been increasing for years.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-WIND_POWER.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/RE_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-WIND_POWER.pdf</a></p>
<p>&#8220;Wind power is in fact more predictable than the ever-changing electricity supply and demand patterns that utility system operators deal with every day&#8221;</p>
<p>Compeltely false. Utility system operators can predict the supply and demand pattern very well in advance. Even weeks or months in advance, because these patterns vary very little. In contrast to Wind power. Even predicting wind power supply 24 hours in advance is very difficult, let alone weeks or months in advance.</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8230; not to mention the dramatic effects of an unexpected shut-down of a large power plant.&#8221;</p>
<p>Actually, the effects of such a shut-down are not dramatic at all. Large power plants have hardly any unexpected shutdowns, which means that one back-up plant can cover such am unexpected shortfall for *many* plants at the same time. Not so for wind power. Throughout the year there will *always* be many hours when almost no wind power is available. This means that backup plants will be needed for almost *all* installed wind power, *all* the time, 24/7/365. It is a *completely* different situation.</p>
<p>These are all very simple issues. It is hard to understand why EWEA refuses to address them. It is even harder to understand why EWEA seems to be actively pretending these issues are not there. It will only lead to dissappointment and blow-back. In whose interest is that?</p>
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