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Thursday, 13 March 2014
11:15 - 12:45 Forecasting: Maximizing grid deliverability and leading your business processes to profitability
Resource Assessment  


Room: Tramuntana
Session description

The growth of wind energy is increasingly impacting upon and limited by the grid infrastructure of many countries. Accurate short-term forecasting of wind power can help to maintain the growth of the sector. System operators are able to avoid many balancing issues if accurate production forecasts are available. Deviation charges of wind farm owners could be greatly reduced using new techniques. Accurate forecasts can also bring significant benefits when planning turbine maintenance, especially offshore.

Learning objectives

Delegates will learn about topics including:

  • Economic impact of forecast accuracy
  • Making wind a firm resource: the role of forecasting
  • Using forecasting models to schedule maintenance activities
  • Dealing with the real world: best practices for including extreme conditions into the forecast models
  • Forecasting challenges for 2014-2020, quick-to-market tools and R&D
Lead Session Chair:
Miguel Ezpeleta, Acciona Energia, Spain
Gregor Giebel
DTU Wind, , Denmark

Abstract

Wind power forecasting is by now an established technology, and has a wide market place. TSOs and large-scale operators already rely on short-term forecasts, just as many smaller stakeholders in the supply chain, but are they all getting the best value out of the forecasts they receive? And what is the value in the first place?
The talk will show some examples of in-house maximisation of the value of the forecasts with specific uses in mind. It also will show some user requirements for different forecasting products, and point to some additional uses for forecasts on very short or very long time scales. Additionally, some specific challenges for offshore wind power will be shown, and some “ancillary services” for forecasting users introduced.
The talk is based to some extent on the EWEA Forecasting Workshop in Rotterdam in December 2013, and the EERA Forecasting Workshop in Risø in January 2014.