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Thursday, 13 March 2014
11:15 - 12:45 Forecasting: Maximizing grid deliverability and leading your business processes to profitability
Resource Assessment  


Room: Tramuntana
Session description

The growth of wind energy is increasingly impacting upon and limited by the grid infrastructure of many countries. Accurate short-term forecasting of wind power can help to maintain the growth of the sector. System operators are able to avoid many balancing issues if accurate production forecasts are available. Deviation charges of wind farm owners could be greatly reduced using new techniques. Accurate forecasts can also bring significant benefits when planning turbine maintenance, especially offshore.

Learning objectives

Delegates will learn about topics including:

  • Economic impact of forecast accuracy
  • Making wind a firm resource: the role of forecasting
  • Using forecasting models to schedule maintenance activities
  • Dealing with the real world: best practices for including extreme conditions into the forecast models
  • Forecasting challenges for 2014-2020, quick-to-market tools and R&D
Lead Session Chair:
Miguel Ezpeleta, Acciona Energia, Spain
Georges Kariniotakis
MINES ParisTech, , France

Presenter's biography

Biographies are supplied directly by presenters at EWEA 2014 and are published here unedited

George KARINIOTAKIS was born in Athens, Greece. Dipl. Eng. (1992), MSc (1992), PhD (1996). He is currently with the Centre of Processes, Renewable Energies and Energy Systems (PERSEE) of MINES ParisTech as professor and head of the Renewable Energies and Smartgrids Group. He has been the coordinator of the three major European projects (Anemos, Anemos.plus, SafeWind) in the period 2002-2012 in the field of wind power forecasting. He has authored more than 180 scientific publications in journals and conferences. He is member of the Steering Committee and chair of the expert group on “Grid integration” of TPWIND.

Abstract

Wind power forecasting is recognized today as a prerequisite for an economic and secure large scale integration of wind power into power systems and electricity markets. Several forecasting approaches exist today in the state of the art as a result of a long research and development activity in the field going initiated in the ‘80s. Especially in the last 10 years through a number of national and EU collaborative projects in the field there has been significant progress. This was supported by continuous improvement of the performance of the Numerical Weather Predictions component provided by the meteorological institutes.
The interest in the field has grown now worldwide with numerous publications appearing, while at the same time wind power forecasts are widely used by end-users in their business practice. The aim of this talk is to present the state of the art as it is shaped today by both the research and commercial activities. It will emphasize not only on where we stand in the field (highlights) but also on the technology gaps and what is needed for the future.
Indeed, as wind penetration increases, end users of the forecasting technology continuously require products of improved accuracy. Due to the complexity of the problem there is a consensus today that future research is required. Research priorities for the future will be presented and discussed. These priorities are identified in different groupings of experts like the European Wind Energy Technology Platform (TPWind) or R&D projects like SafeWind.