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Wednesday, 12 March 2014
11:15 - 12:45 Wind speed predictions: Are we at the limit of our knowledge or can we improve?
Resource Assessment  

Room: Ponent

Session description

No new long-term correction methods have appeared for years and it is possible that current techniques are optimal. There are several issues which affect any long-term correction analysis:

… from the mundane: the optimum reference period? how do we measure success? re-analysis data or ground based stations? non-integer years of data?

… to the exotic: atmospheric stability, climate change decadal variations, sun spots activity and solar cycles.

It is likely that long-term correction techniques which consider these may provide more reliable predictions than has previously been possible.

This session describes new long-term correction methodologies and compares the results with those of conventional methods. Innovative techniques to improve the representativeness of long-term data series are discussed, different long-term data series are compared and conclusions on the decadal-scale variability of the wind speed are presented. The overall objective of this session is to give insight on how these developments contribute to a greater certainty in future wind speed predictions.

Learning objectives

  • Evaluate innovative methods to improve the representativeness of long-term data series and the overall accuracy of long-term extrapolations
  • Compare new long-term correction methods to traditional methods
  • Understand how a more accurate description of the decadal-scale variability of the wind speed contributes to the reduction of the uncertainty in the long-term corrected wind speed
This session will be chaired by:
Sónia Liléo, Kjeller Vindteknikk AS, Sweden
Co-chair: Steve Ross, 3Tier


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